What is a good return over the long term?

I often talk about what the maximum return is over a long period of time that can be achieved without taking excessive risks. After all, there are lots of financial products in the market for private individuals and everyone is trying to outdo each other to get investors.

If we take a step back and think about what we should reasonably expect for returns, I always come up with a figure around 7 – 8%.

If we could find a single product that could give us 7 – 8% return with small risks year after year, it should mean that all other investments really became uninteresting except to have as some spice in an investment portfolio as a lottery ticket.

Take, for example, a portfolio of dividend paying shares, what can it reasonably generate over time? The yield from the dividends can probably reach up to 4, 5 or 6%, but is it worth the price risk?

At Untie, we today produced a very interesting chart showing the return on Untie Lending’s Preference Share compared to the Swedish stock exchange that we represented with the index OMXS30.

Looking at the chart, one can almost believe that we have plotted a linear regression as the OMX curve bounces back and forth around this fixed rate of return from the Preference Shares.

Over the past 12 months, the stock market has vibrated up and down since August having climbed up over 20% in return. Everything was then erased in just one week and the stock market’s return is now at 6.11%. Anyone who has invested in an index fund that reflects the OMXS30 has thus had to endure a huge roller coaster in order to ultimately arrive at a return that is inferior to the fixed 7% generated by the Preference Shares without any stomach ulcer!

The chart from Untie can be viewed below.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: