Two potential outcomes for S&P 500

A quick market update for you today. I am tracking two viable wave counts in the S&P 500. My primary long term count is shown below.

This is a very negative count and labels the drop that recently bottomed as a first wave of a larger 5 wave decline. On the short term chart it looks like this.

I can definitely see a five wave decline here and I played the last parts of wave (v) by buying some credit bull spreads in the S&P 500 futures since volatility was priced up and expensive. This has now contracted thanks to the bounce and profits are booked so now I am only watching to see how this plays out. If the primary count is correct then the bounce should fail very shortly.

The alternative count is much more bullish and shows that we could just have finished the large wave IV and that wave V just began.

In the short term chart it looks like this.

If this is going to be valid then S&P 500 cannot drop below the bottom at 2603 so that is a good level for a stop.

Have a great day!

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